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Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe

机译:绘制欧洲荒地与城市交界地区的大型森林火灾的区域格局

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摘要

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland–Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires.
机译:在最近几十年中,欧洲许多地区的土地利用和覆被变化(LUCC)趋势重新配置了许多城市地区的景观结构。在这些地区,靠近具有高森林燃料的景观元素增加了人员和财产的火灾风险。这些荒地-城市交界地区(WUI)可以定义为人为城市土地利用和森林燃料量接触的景观。需要确定其范围,以便优先控制火灾风险并告知当地森林火灾风险管理策略。这项研究提出了一种在大陆尺度上绘制欧洲WUI地区范围和空间格局的地图的方法。使用WUI地区的欧洲地图,检验了假设,即距最近的WUI地区的距离与森林火灾的可能性有关。随后通过逻辑回归分析对距最近的WUI区域的距离与来自卫星遥感的大型森林火灾之间的统计关系进行建模。展示了WUI范围和位置的第一张欧洲比例尺地图。发现大火与特定国家/地区之间的正面和负面关系,以及与最近的WUI区域的距离。区域范围的分析表明,WUI地区对地中海地区部分地区的大火影响很大。结果表明,在撒丁岛,普罗旺斯-阿尔卑斯-蔚蓝海岸等旅游区域,或在城市周边有强力成分的区域(如加泰罗尼亚,马德里市政区,瓦伦西亚自治区),大面积烧伤的可能性随WUI距离的减小而增加。对于上述区域,大面积烧伤表面的概率曲线在最近的WUI的5000 m缓冲区内显示出统计关系(ROC值> 0.5)。明智的土地管理可以提供有价值的生态系统服务,以减少火灾风险,目前并未明确将其包括在生态系统服务评估中。结果再次强调了将生态系统服务包括在景观评估中的重要性,以说明重要的景观功能可减少灾难性大火的风险。

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